VoIP is a major innovation that is having a major impact on the telecommunications world. Yet, surprisingly little information is available in the public domain on adoption, usage and attitudes towards VoIP.
In February 2004, the Pew Internet & American Life Project published a DataMemo on VoIP reporting on a study of practice, perception, attitude and familiarity with VoIP telephony: 2204 adult Americans were interviewed; 1388 were Internet users; 1 used VoIP at home. If adoption is absolutely minimal, familiarity with and disposition towards VoIP are much more developed. The Pew survey found that 11% of Internet users have already made a VoIP phone call; 27% have heard about the service, and among them 13% have considered adopting VoIP for home use. When projected in relation to the US Internet population, these percentages correspond to 34M users who are aware of VoIP; 14M who have tried it and 4M who are interested in using VoIP at home.
The Pew report describes the demographics of those who are familiar with the VoIP concept as corresponding to the "classic early adopter profile": the largest age group consists of people between age 25 and 34, well-educated and well-off, curious about trying new things, able to handle technical problems, a majority of male, long-time Internet users. They are more numerous to access Internet at home or at work using a high-speed connection than the overall Internet user population.
In May 2004, Jupiter Research surveyed U.S. Broadband consumers on their use of advanced voice-based PC communication services. Participants (n=812) were asked "which of the following voice services have you used at least once in the last six months?" and had eight possibilities to choose from. The most frequent answer was "none of the services" (56%), followed by "never heard of them" (26%). Some people indicated they had used "Voice with IM or chat" (11%), eventually in the context of games (3,5%) or with CRM (2%). Very few said they had used VoIP, either as main line (3%), as secondary line (2%), or in PC-to-phone calls (2%). It is difficult to project this number on the overall population, because the available statistics on Broadband concern household, and not consumers. What emerges quite clearly though is that VoIP penetration is very low even among the more advanced users in terms of Internet access.
Another way of approaching the question is by looking at the numbers of VoIP subscribers. Global estimations however, vary widely. The Pew report quotes Gartner estimation of 150.000 U.S. VoIP subscribers in 2003, and predictions of 1M by the end of 2004 and 6M by the end of 2005. Jupiter Research is more conservative, and talks of 400.000 U.S. households using VoIP telephony by the end of 2004.
Data from VoIP service providers are, on the other hand, difficult to collate. However, they point out formidable adoption rates.
Worldwide, Skype celebrated a year ago, October the 22nd, 1.5M downloads 51 days after the launch of the service and 100.000 simultaneous users. A few days ago, October the 20th, Skype celebrated 28M downloads for 12.9M users and 1M simultaneous users.
Quoting November 2004 analyses from Faultline, in the US Vonage had 7.500 subscribers when it started operations in 2002. Subscribers grew to 85.000 in 2003, and are now 300.000.
A last example from the Netherlands, via Eurotelco blog:
UnitedGlobalCom, parent company of UPC, stated that its residential trial of VoIP in Rotterdam had achieved a 22% penetration rate on the service with minimal marketing......Considering that UPC Netherlands has 2.3M customers and 2.4M two-way homes passed, a 22% level of uptake across its Dutch footprint suggests something like 510k VoIP subs over time.
Finally, always via Eurotelco, have a look at Xten X-lite Free World Dial-up user map
Where: US and Global
When: 2004